Reading the press over the last few days one has to wonder how global the perspective of our polititians and bankers really is. Our previous government tried as hard as they could to blame the effects of an overspending state, ineffective regulation and unsustainable personal debt levels on the idea of a so-called ‘global’ crisis, while stifling growth with ill thought-out extra taxes and more bureaucracy. At the time most non-European/US economies were booming.
Having just returned from Brazil, where I have never seen such optimism, our parochial view seems if not misplaced, then certainly overdone. And the press does love a negative story - just consider the trader who lost billions for his employer: since what he was doing was in effect a form of gambling then surely other companies will have ‘won’ those same billions.
So let’s talk ourselves up, not down.
PS Having said all that, I am slightly concerned about Brazil. With 12% interest rates and an over-valued currency their exporters must be having a very tough time. The rest of Latin America (and the world) is welcoming their affluent travellers for now, and no doubt the 2012 World Cup and 2014 Olympics will maintain euphoria for a while longer. But when the inevitable correction does come I hope it will be a gentle adjustment and not the sharp shock that was common in Latin America when I lived there.